Beyond Base Case: Archer's Scenario Engine for Proactive CRE Investors

Unleash the power of side-by-side analysis. Compare key metrics, identify risks, and optimize deal structure in real-time

The commercial real estate (CRE) industry is a landscape of constant change. Success hinges not just on reacting to market shifts, but on anticipating them. That's why proactive investors, brokers, and lenders understand the indispensable value of scenario analysis – a technique that goes far beyond simply calculating a "most likely" outcome.

"This is just another example of how only Archer is uniquely positioned to help CRE firms unlock and harness their most valuable deal data. Now everyone can proactively stress-test every deal to truly get a deeper understanding of the opportunity." - Fred Canney, Co-founder of Archer.

The Proactive Power of Scenario Analysis: Moving Beyond the "Base Case"

Scenario analysis is the strategic process of constructing and evaluating multiple plausible future events to determine the potential range of results for a CRE investment. It's about exploring "what if" situations and understanding the potential impact of various factors on a deal's performance.

While the "Base Case" (representing the most probable outcome) is essential, true proactive analysis delves deeper, typically incorporating:

• Downside Scenarios: These models stress-test the investment against negative events like economic downturns, rising interest rates, increased vacancy, or unexpected expenses. They're about identifying vulnerabilities and quantifying potential losses.
• Upside Scenarios: These models explore the potential for exceeding expectations, perhaps through aggressive rent growth, successful value-add strategies, or faster-than-anticipated lease-up. They're about uncovering hidden opportunities and maximizing returns.

But the power of scenario analysis extends far beyond these common examples. Proactive CRE professionals leverage it to:

• Analyze Sensitivities: Understand how key variables (e.g., rent growth, cap rates, operating expenses) impact profitability.
• Optimize Deal Structure: Fine-tune financing terms, debt structures, and exit strategies to align with different market conditions.
• Evaluate Exit Strategies: Assess the viability of various exit options (e.g., sale, refinance) under different economic forecasts.
• Communicate Effectively: Present a comprehensive and compelling picture of an investment's potential to investors, lenders, and partners, building trust and confidence.

The Traditional Bottleneck: Why Scenario Analysis Has Been Underutilized

Despite its strategic importance, scenario analysis has often been underutilized in CRE due to the significant time and effort it traditionally demands. The process has been a bottleneck, limited by:

1. Time-Intensive Modeling: Creating even a few scenarios can involve hours or days of painstaking work, as analysts manually adjust inputs, manipulate formulas, and construct separate underwriting models for each "what if" situation.
2. Laborious Comparison: Once the models are built, comparing the results is equally challenging. Extracting and organizing the relevant inputs (e.g., rent growth assumptions, expense projections) and outputs (e.g., cash flows, returns, valuation metrics) from each model for side-by-side comparison is a tedious and error-prone process.

This traditional bottleneck forces CRE professionals to make a difficult choice: either perform a quick, shallow analysis of a limited number of scenarios or invest significant resources in a more thorough but time-consuming exploration. The result is often:

• Inadequate Risk Assessment: Failure to fully explore downside risks can lead to unexpected losses.
• Missed Opportunities: Overlooking potential upside scenarios can result in suboptimal returns and missed value creation.
• Suboptimal Decision-Making: Incomplete scenario comparison can obscure key sensitivities and lead to flawed investment judgments.

Archer's Scenario Engine: Unleashing the Power of Side-by-Side Analysis in Real-Time

Archer is changing the game. Our platform eliminates the traditional bottlenecks of scenario analysis, empowering proactive CRE investors to:

• Automate Data Capture: Archer's proprietary "Save to Archer" functionality automatically captures all the crucial data – inputs, underwriting metrics, returns, cash flows, and more – directly from your underwriting models. This eliminates manual data entry and ensures data accuracy, saving countless hours of work.
• Effortlessly Manage Scenarios: Users can create and save an unlimited number of underwriting scenarios within Archer, facilitating rapid iteration and exploration of various possibilities.
• Unleash the Power of Side-by-Side Analysis in Real-Time: Archer provides powerful tools for real-time, visual, and quantitative comparison of these scenarios. This allows users to instantly identify key differences, assess sensitivities, and understand the drivers of value and risk, all within a unified platform.

The Transformative Impact: Smarter, Faster, More Confident Decisions

Archer's scenario engine empowers a new era of proactive CRE analysis, delivering transformative benefits:

• Accelerated Decision-Making: Compare multiple scenarios in minutes, not hours or days, enabling rapid response to market changes and swift deal execution.
• Enhanced Risk Mitigation: Uncover potential downside risks with comprehensive stress testing and sensitivity analysis, minimizing the likelihood of costly surprises.
• Optimized Investment Strategies: Evaluate a wide range of deal structures and financing options to maximize returns and achieve your investment goals.
• Improved Communication and Collaboration: Share and discuss scenarios seamlessly with your team, investors, lenders, and partners, fostering transparency and alignment.
• Unprecedented Analytical Depth: Conduct more sophisticated and nuanced analyses, going beyond simple "base case" projections to uncover hidden opportunities and avoid potential pitfalls.

Conclusion: The Proactive Investor's Edge

In today's complex and competitive CRE market, proactive analysis is no longer a luxury; it's a necessity for survival and success. Archer's powerful scenario engine provides that edge, empowering CRE professionals to anticipate change, mitigate risk, and make smarter, more confident investment decisions. By embracing a data-driven approach and exploring a full spectrum of possibilities, you can unlock the true potential of your deals and achieve your investment objectives with greater certainty.